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Press Release |  03 Nov 2011 15:47 |  By RnMTeam

BBC consumer confidence poll: India and China most upbeat Asian nations about next year, Pakistan more pessimistic

MUMBAI: India and China emerged as the most upbeat about the next year among the Asian countries surveyed as part of a 25-nation poll for BBC World Service assessing global consumer confidence. In Pakistan, pessimists outnumbered the optimists.

The poll of 25,438 people was conducted by GlobeScan between July and September this year. Respondents were asked to say whether they expect good or bad economic times in the next year, and also over the next five years. Globally, consumers in many of the world's major industrialised economies are pessimistic about economic prospects in their country, while those in emerging economies are much more upbeat.

The two economic giants, China and India, are the most upbeat among the Asian countries surveyed, with over half of respondents (51%) thinking good business conditions will prevail in their country during the next year. However, economic sentiment in India is not as positive as last year, with the proportion of optimists decreasing by 11 points, while it remains stable in China. There are also over twice as many Indians who are pessimistic (24%) as in China (11%).

In Pakistan, the perspectives on the short-term economic outlook are not good.  While 30% of Pakistanis have positive views - an increase of 12 points since 2010 - optimists are still outnumbered by pessimists (36%).

Looking at the longer term, the Chinese appear as the most confident in the capacity of their economy to fare well (62%). Long-term economic perspectives for India are also considered positive by a majority of Indians, although economic confidence has dropped since 2010 (50%, down 7 points). In Pakistan, long-term optimism has gained some ground, from 21% in 2010 up to 32% this year.

Sam Mountford, Research Director, GlobeScan Incorporated, commented on the poll findings: While economic sentiment in India is still positive, the threat of imported recession from the OECD countries and stubbornly high inflation appear to be making Indians more wary. But the Chinese seem confident that their country will remain the engine of the world economy for some time to come....

This is the third year that the poll has measured economic confidence around the world. Focusing just on the change in consumer confidence since 2010, most of the countries seeing the biggest increases are in the developing world, with the biggest rises in Kenya (up 24 points since 2010), Mexico (up 23 points), Turkey (up 16), and Indonesia and Germany (each up 14). The proportions expecting good times have dropped in two countries - India (down 11 points since 2010) and Australia (down 9 points). Economic confidence has been largely static over the same period in the UK and other G7 economies like France, Canada, the USA and Japan.

International polling firm GlobeScan conducted this poll for BBC World Service between July 3, 2011 and September 16, 2011. The margin of error per country ranges from +/- 2.0 to 4.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

GlobeScan Chairman, Doug Miller, commented: The poll suggests citizens in many industrialised economies - most notably the UK and US - see their immediate and longer-term economic prospects as bleak, and the continuing eurozone crisis will only be making matters worse. It also reveals continuing strong consumer confidence in emerging giants such as Brazil, India, and China....

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